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Datameteo for agro-meteorological services in managing weather risk (hail, drought, frost)




Meteorology can helps you and assisting your business: What we do..


People commonly associate weather forecast with a simple icon such as: sunny, cloudy, rain. Meteorology is also an huge ocean of potential useful approaches useful to be  applied to sectors such as agriculture (frosts, drought, hail), civil protection (flooding, roads, ports, airports), insurances or energy with the power predictions from renewable or non-programmable sources of energy (solar, wind, hydro).

high resolution weather for models for agro

 



Yesterday-Today-Tomorrow: The Climate Memory


Nowadays weather is one of the most important   word in our daily life. Internet is full of weather sources and for many people the search of the most reliable forecast  this is becoming a true obsession. Professional services try to keep account of the caotic state of the atmosphere and knowing the past, present weather data  and conditions is the first foundamental step to build an accurate forecast.

Yesterday  and actual weather can be known not only in places where a meteorological station is installated. Satellite feeds and the new  weather tecnologies fronties (reanalysis)  can help us to have data in places with poor density o total absecnce of weather stations.

 

past, present, weather data

Reanalysis is boh a weather technology and a scientific method for developing a comprehensive record of how weather and climate are changing over time. In it, observations and a numerical model that simulates one or more aspects of the Earth system are combined objectively to generate a synthesized estimate of the state of the system. A reanalysis typically extends over several decades or longer, and covers the entire globe from the Earth’s surface to well above the stratosphere. Reanalysis products are used extensively in climate research and services, including for monitoring and comparing current climate conditions with those of the past, identifying the causes of climate variations and change, and preparing climate predictions. Information derived from reanalyses is also being used increasingly in commercial and business applications in sectors such as energy, agriculture, water resources, and insurances.

Knowing the past in order to deal with the present and prevent in the future.

 

Reanalysis products are used extensively in climate research and services, including for monitoring and comparing current climate conditions with those of the past, identifying the causes of climate variations and change, and preparing climate predictions. Information derived from reanalyses is also being used increasingly in commercial and business applications in sectors such as energy, agriculture, water resources, and insurance.

Reanalysis can integrate the other actual data sources ( ground stations, buoys, radiosoundings , satellite feeds ) in order to provide the most accurate weather climate scenary that become a sort of  memory of the climate change. In this way we can have the most accurate weather information than can be use to calculate a forecast.

Choosing the right resolution at which reanalysis has calculated you can have the best performances in term of resources and accuracy.Below  the screenshot below shows two samples of how  model can see the orography at 2000 and 100 m of resolution. Resolution basically indicates what the model see in terms of Digital Elevation Orography Model while the different global forecast weather inizialization (GFS, ECMWF the most used ) data used indicates how the weather  forecast core used can see the future atmosferical prognosis scenaries on local basis.

spray window meteograms

Our models and our structure allows us to provide high resolution forecasts for the future, but also to store weather data to reuse them, for example, for design and/or reconstruction of events with a temporal resolution up to an hour and in special cases also forecast 10-15 minutes.

Datameteo employs technical models WRF-NMM and WRF-EMM with horizontal resolutions at 1 (Italy)-3 (Europe)-12 (Asia, India) -18 (Africa, Americas) kilometers and so millions of points of specific predictions and for creating archives of weather logged timeseries available in one click.




Datameteo AGRO: a pratical and cost efficient help for your agriculture business


For the agriculture and the enviroment  is very important knowing in advance with some reliability whether it will rain or not, if there are late frosts, hail damaging, flash floods or drought with high temperatures, allows to program any irrigation of fields, crop spraying and phyto-sanitary treatments, the protection of them from hail or fire.


mi conviene trattare

 Related to these disasters are connected  the economic and environmental risks arising from loss of agricultural production or hydrogeological.risk assessment. We operate every day to offer the best solutions to help the customerrs decision making capability relating potential risks.


Agrometeorology forecast indexes:When can I spray ?

 

To schedule tasks of sowing, haymaking, spraying, irrigation, pest control, such as the "spraying window" for phyto-sanitary products, which operate on the basis of meteorological parameters more related to agriculture (air and skin temperature, humidity, wind, precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture)


Agrometeorology forecast indexes


You can see above our spray window index with green color that indicates fair  period, yellow caution, red unfavourable spraying period. This graphical presenation is at the same time very intuitive and essential.



Long term seasonal weather trends can help you to identify potential drought, floods potential risk

 


In the latest years climate change has created serious difficulties who must make choices in the medium to long term. A service at affordable rates  that offers  climate trends  over the coming months is an  good investment to support decision making processes. to establish an action plan for the implementation a long term company strategic activity plan.

Our Mission is to provide a simple aand a clear information on future weather scenaries in order to  plan activities and medium-and long-term as: monitoring potential risk, investment sourcing, advertising campaigns, choice of colture.ecc.


April 2013 seasonal forecast for Italy


Example of a map of a seasonal prediction.  Briefly discussing Red, yellow colours to green correspond to positive anomalies. A red anomaly indicated more temperature expected that the seasonal average. Negative ones are representes by celeste trought  blue , dark blu and purple that indicates Frosted trends over an area.




Management of the weather risk: the insurance sector


Energy, agriculture, transportation, construction, municipalities, school districts, travel, food processors, retail sales and real estate
are all examples of industries whose operations and profits can be significantly affected by the weather. For example, unusually mild winters diminish consumer demand for heating and erode the profit margins for utility companies. Unexpected weather events can cause significant financial losses. We give you the right instruments such weather information and accurate forecasts to be utilized in risk management  and decision making.

historical hail water floods, winds extremes in Italy


The maps above show CNR-IBIMET study indicating the potential hazard and frequency of events like hailstorms (latest 10 year), water floods and strong winds events above 120 Km/h.

The weather risk market makes it possible to manage the financial impact of weather through risk transfer instruments based on a defined weather element, such as temperature, rain, snow, wind, etc. Weather risk management is a way for organizations to limit their financial exposure to disruptive weather events.

Our approaches use modern investigative and monitoring tools not only related to the presence of data and archives of meteorological weather stations but also modern satellite and modeling technologies. These new frontiers can contribute effectively to the risk assessment, a first step towards preventing knowing and citing the sources used.

In this context, and in particular for the insurance and environmental industry DATAMETEO has developed:


Precipitation forecasts by using extraction algorithm of radar weather data, specific indices for hail, frost, lightning, thunderstorms risk, strong winds

 

Nowcasting instruments and hail risk index forecast even more refined and accurate are now available thanks to refinements and costant procative monitoring made by the Datameteo meteorologist

 

Hail index forecast vs radar layer on North Wet of Itlay

This image show a comparison among hail risk index forecast and the radar image showing  the extreme events on the right. On the left output we have the forecast for late in the afternoon of 18th of June 2012 with a marker indicating the hail risk.  More is darker the marker  ore is the higher the associated hailstorm index risk associated.  On the right the intensity of precipitation on the  shwon by the weather radar layer




The accurancy of our prediction : a good reason to choose Datameteo agro  forecast


Periodic verification campaigns are conducted by comparing the forecast of our models with measurements of meteorological stations in accordance with WMO (World Meteorological Organization).

Summarizing the weather at 1-7 days from weather model provide:
 
  • 66-50% of all days with a temperature difference of less than 2°C
  • 80-75% of all days with a correct forecast of precipitation >= 2 mm
  • 90-80% of all days with a correct forecast of precipitation >= 5 mm
  • 90-80% of wind speed correlation.
  • an average ability > 40% in precipitation forecast


Additionally the option to use an archive of in-situ meteorological data also allows us to refine the forecasting services built with high-resolution modeling, especially in places with certain critical issues like temperature inversions. Here comes into play a new level of service based on technologies and algorithms as Kalman filter, the Model Output Statistics (MOS) or neural networks, which use the measured data to correct the systematic errors and then produce a more reliable forecast with better performance.


accurate measurments




In this article, we have provided an overview of the services that Datameteo provides about agro, bio and environmenta lindustries, with an eye also to the environmental risk assessment resulting from extreme weather events. If you wish to have more detailed information about each product, please do not hesitate to contact us.